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Strong El Niño could make 2024 the first year we pass 1.5°C of warming

Early modelling suggests the world’s climate could shift to an El Niño pattern towards the end of 2023, which is likely to increase the global average temperature

By Madeleine Cuff

13 January 2023

A field of dead maize plants

A field of dead maize plants in Malawi during a drought caused by El Niño in 2016

Guido Dingemans/Alamy

A global shift to an El Niño climate pattern later this year could pave the way for the world to breach 1.5°C of warming for the first time in 2024, according to the UK Met Office.

New modelling from the agency suggests the current three-year La Niña phase will end in March and this looks likely to be followed by an El Niño pattern later this year.

“At the …

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