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Environment

2022 Tonga eruption means we may hit 1.5°C of global warming earlier

The massive eruption of a Tongan volcano in January 2022 has made it more likely that we will exceed 1.5°C of global warming within the next five years, but the effect will disappear by 2035

By Kate Ravilious

12 January 2023

Satellite view of volcanic ash cloud

A cloud of ash erupting from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on 15 January 2022, photographed by a satellite

NOAA/Alamy Stock Photo

The chances of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C of global warming within the next five years have increased markedly due to the spectacular eruption of an underwater volcano in Tonga in January 2022.

The explosive Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai event was the most powerful of the 21st century so far. Large eruptions are usually dominated by sulphur dioxide emissions, which cause climate cooling, but the Tonga one was very unusual because …

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