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Next 10,000 years of Greenland ice sheet could be decided this century

Carbon emissions within the next 50 years could lead to a tipping point where large parts of the Greenland ice sheet melt over the next 10,000 years

By James Dinneen

29 March 2023

The ice sheet near Pituffik, Greenland

The ice sheet near Pituffik, Greenland

Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty

A large portion of the Greenland ice sheet could melt over the next 10,000 years if cumulative carbon emissions reach 1000 gigatonnes, roughly double what has already been emitted.

Global warming driven by emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is already causing substantial melting on the Greenland ice sheet. By 2100, meltwater from Greenland alone is expected to contribute several centimetres of sea level rise.

But 2100 is hardly the end of the story. “The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere …

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