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Analysis and Environment

The first breach of 1.5°C will be a temporary but devastating failure

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C has become the defining measure of success in the climate fight and we need to think about what comes next

By Madeleine Cuff

16 January 2023

"1.5 degrees" displayed on the Eiffel Tower

The goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C was agreed in Paris in 2015

Chesnot/Getty Images

The world has already warmed by about 1.2°C since pre-industrial times. Within the next four years, there is a 48 per cent chance temperatures could breach the 1.5°C threshold for the first time, according to the UK Met Office. At most, the world has nine years until breaching 1.5°C for at least one year is inevitable, according to the Global Carbon Project.

It would be a totemic milestone. The 1.5°C target has become …

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